Regime Change: FOW 2. Mad for MAD

I keep coming back to the biggest threat of this war:

POLITICO @politico

Putin is trying to take down the entire world order, Fiona Hill tells @POLITICOMag. “Every time you think, 'No, he wouldn’t, would he?’ Well, yes, he would. And he wants us to know that, of course.”

politico.com‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and NukesPutin is trying to take down the entire world order, the veteran Russia watcher said in an interview. But there are ways even ordinary Americans can fight back.

Yeah, it’s a bluff that’s meant to stop the West from intervening, but the assumption is that nothing besides direct military intervention will be taken by the Russian leadership as worthy of nuclear escalation. But it looks like the West/NATO are doing everything short of putting their pilots into Ukrainian airspace.

They are supplying fighter jets to be flown by Ukrainian pilots.

Shashank Joshi @shashj

Jaw-dropping. Borrell says EU military package may include "supplying fighter jets" for Ukraine's air force, EU has spoken w/ Ukrainian foreign minister "about the type of jets the Ukrainian military needs" & there are "member states...able to supply them" bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

The strongest possible financial sanctions are underway:

Eddie Fishman @edwardfishman

The US just unveiled the details of its sanctions against the Central Bank of Russia. Bottom line: This is close to the most ambitious form that this action could take. Here's my initial analysis (🧵):

Even Switzerland has joined the EU sanctions against Russia

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent

⚡️Switzerland adopts EU sanctions, freezes Putin's assets. Switzerland broke its historically neutral status to adopt EU sanctions against Russia over its war on Ukraine.

As a result, the Ruble is in free fall (though I am curious who is shoring up the ruble at the very end of this graph):

Never to miss an opportunity, fossil fuel companies are joining the fray (they will extract their pound of flesh back home for sure):

Javier Blas @JavierBlas

BREAKING: And wow!!! After BP, the deluge. Shell announces it's exiting all its joint-ventures with Gazprom, including its 27.5% stake in the Sakhalin-2 LNG facility. Shell carries those JV at $3 billion valuation on its books, and it's warning of impartments #Ukraine

and farce accompanies tragedy:

BBC Business @BBCBusiness

Ukraine conflict: Disney, Warner, Sony halt release of films in Russia

bit.lyUkraine conflict: Disney, Warner, Sony halt release of films in RussiaThe moves come as major corporations cut business links with Russia after its invasion of Ukraine.

The best case: Putin backs down, some face saving measure is found that legitimizes Russia’s interests (perhaps Ukraine will be declared a neutral zone? but if I were Ukraine I would want to be in NATO since I won’t trust any promises made by Russia), the sanctions regime will end and the Russian public won’t have to suffer. However, I don’t expect the sanctions against Putin, Lavrov and the oligarchs ending even in the best case scenario. Which means that there’s a structural incentive for Putin to escalate.

The best case scenario is only one of many possible outcomes. What if the Russians start using thermobaric weapons? In retrospect, the Cuban missile could have easily resulted in nuclear war. Serhii Plokhy says in his recent book on the Cuban missile crisis:

So what happens when that fear is no longer a motivation? What if - a big if, though there’s widespread speculation - Putin is grievously ill and wants to go out with a bang?

Julia Ioffe @juliaioffe

What do you do with people who have nothing to lose? And who want to take everyone down with them?

max seddon @maxseddon

Russian state TV: “Our submarines alone can launch more than 500 nuclear warheads, which guarantees the destruction of the US and NATO for good measure. The principle is: why do we need the world if Russia won’t be in it?” https://t.co/hvYkhz9DpE

Is the fear real? Or is it part of a plan to trigger regime change in Russia? Throughout this week there’s been consistent Western messaging that Putin is literally crazy (like the Fiona Hill interview at the top of this essay) the goal of which is to delegitimize his rule. What if he isn’t crazy crazy but merely crazy like a fox. Or a rational actor given his circumstances.

I am totally befuddled