Regime Change: FOW 1
As I said yesterday, the fog of war (FOW) is thick; every day brings a new reality and there’s no point in making long term conclusions. Like these two tweets from the same source and only a couple of hours apart:
Wars are complicated affairs and no one should expect it go smoothly. The question is whether the Russians will adapt and come back with a better strategy or will it be downhill from now on until regime change (in Russia, not Ukraine!).
To be taken with a massive rock of salt since it’s propaganda.
Richard N. Haass @RichardHaassJust days ago much of the world was focused on the unwanted prospect of regime change in Ukraine. Now the conversation has shifted to include the possibility of desired regime change in Russia. A week can be a long time in politics.
Existential uncertainty is the new reality and we have to learn how to be supple and subtle in response. The good news is that the fog of war also helps us concentrate our thoughts and figure out what’s truly important. We know however things turn out, the threat of nuclear war is important. We know climate change is important and if this war sets climate action back by a few years, that’s really important.
I find Twitter to be a good tool to get multiple perspectives from people worth taking seriously and in the FOW series, I will assemble a group of tweets as a way of thinking through one issue.
Gregory Brew @gbrew24For those developing oil/gas takes, a few things to note: 1) the oil produced in the US is materially different than the oil produced in Russia. 2) the current oil market is very tight, very little spare capacity outside of UAE/KSA and Iran post-nuclear deal.
But looks like point is winning over counterpoint for now
and here’s why:
But the planet doesn’t care about your gas prices:
That report is out with sirens blaring:
Ergo: my tentative conclusion:
So what do you think what’s going to happen? Coal plants in Germany once again? A Green Marshall Plan for Europe? Let us know in the comments.
Some humor in these dark times: