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Regime Change: FOW 1
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Regime Change

Regime Change: FOW 1

Rajesh Kasturirangan
Feb 28
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As I said yesterday, the fog of war (FOW) is thick; every day brings a new reality and there’s no point in making long term conclusions. Like these two tweets from the same source and only a couple of hours apart:

Twitter avatar for @KyivIndependentThe Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent
⚡️⚡️⚡️BREAKING: Putin orders Russian nuclear deterrent forces on alert.

February 27th 2022

8,123 Retweets23,467 Likes
Twitter avatar for @KyivIndependentThe Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent
⚡️⚡️⚡️BREAKING: Ukraine confirms peace talks with Russia today.

February 27th 2022

18,304 Retweets79,306 Likes
Twitter avatar for @RichardHaassRichard N. Haass @RichardHaass
As Putin puts nuclear forces on alert we learn of Russia-Ukraine talks. What we dont know is the tie between the two & whether the nuclear threat is an effort to impose harsh terms rather than negotiate reasonable ones. Both tho suggest Putin realizes his strategy isnt working.

February 27th 2022

515 Retweets1,780 Likes

Wars are complicated affairs and no one should expect it go smoothly. The question is whether the Russians will adapt and come back with a better strategy or will it be downhill from now on until regime change (in Russia, not Ukraine!).

Twitter avatar for @RichardHaassRichard N. Haass @RichardHaass
Just days ago much of the world was focused on the unwanted prospect of regime change in Ukraine. Now the conversation has shifted to include the possibility of desired regime change in Russia. A week can be a long time in politics.

February 27th 2022

147 Retweets897 Likes
Twitter avatar for @DAlperovitchDmitri Alperovitch @DAlperovitch
For the first time in 22 years, I am actually starting to believe that Putin’s hold on power may be on shaky ground. Not because of some Plpeople’s uprising—that’s a fanciful dream—but because there is now a small but non-zero chance of a palace coup 🧵

February 27th 2022

2,337 Retweets14,994 Likes

To be taken with a massive rock of salt since it’s propaganda.

Twitter avatar for @phl43Philippe Lemoine @phl43
Indeed, which is why before writing this tweet, you should probably have waited another week.

Richard N. Haass @RichardHaass

Just days ago much of the world was focused on the unwanted prospect of regime change in Ukraine. Now the conversation has shifted to include the possibility of desired regime change in Russia. A week can be a long time in politics.

February 27th 2022

2 Retweets47 Likes

Existential uncertainty is the new reality and we have to learn how to be supple and subtle in response. The good news is that the fog of war also helps us concentrate our thoughts and figure out what’s truly important. We know however things turn out, the threat of nuclear war is important. We know climate change is important and if this war sets climate action back by a few years, that’s really important.

I find Twitter to be a good tool to get multiple perspectives from people worth taking seriously and in the FOW series, I will assemble a group of tweets as a way of thinking through one issue.

Let’s go.

Twitter avatar for @mattyglesiasMatthew Yglesias @mattyglesias
This is not going to be the groups’ favorite idea, but I think it would be advisable for the administrator to reach out to GOP leaders to discuss ideas (loan guarantees? a minimum price?) to spur a more rapid increase in domestic fracking.

February 24th 2022

116 Retweets1,526 Likes

Counterpoint:

Twitter avatar for @70sBachchanAlbert Pinto @70sBachchan
2/ Opportunistic Fossil companies use Ukraine crisis to get their wishlist. They have blocked $500 billion in climate investmetns in Biden's infrastrucutre bill for a year now! And are trying to get more fossil investments in the name of "energy security"
Climate Fears on Back Burner as Fuel Costs Soar and Russia Crisis DeepensEnergy security has gained prominence while the conflict in Ukraine raises concerns over the possible interruption in the supply of oil and natural gas.nytimes.com

February 25th 2022

4 Retweets17 Likes
Twitter avatar for @70sBachchanAlbert Pinto @70sBachchan
4/ Fossil fuel companies and fossil rich countries are seizing on Russian invasion of Ukraine to make the argument that US and Saudis should drill more! #GeopoliticsOfGHGs Its wrong (see thread here) but progressives must push green priorities (OP)

Gregory Brew @gbrew24

For those developing oil/gas takes, a few things to note: 1) the oil produced in the US is materially different than the oil produced in Russia. 2) the current oil market is very tight, very little spare capacity outside of UAE/KSA and Iran post-nuclear deal.

February 25th 2022

2 Likes

But looks like point is winning over counterpoint for now

Twitter avatar for @ShellenbergerMDMichael Shellenberger @ShellenbergerMD
After Russia invaded, a few people demanded that Europe stop buying its natural gas, but European utilities snatched up long-term Russian contracts, and the White House said, "Our sanctions are not designed to cause any disruption to the flow of energy from Russia to the world."
Image
Image

February 25th 2022

497 Retweets2,632 Likes

and here’s why:

Twitter avatar for @ntsafosNikos Tsafos @ntsafos
Can Europe live without Russian gas right now? (Let’s ignore for a second whether this is a good political weapon—as in, do you think Putin will pull rethink the war if Europe stops buying Russian gas? I doubt it). Let’s just focus on numbers.

February 26th 2022

1,388 Retweets5,178 Likes
Twitter avatar for @ntsafosNikos Tsafos @ntsafos
Europe imports around 400 bcm each year (using an expansive definition of “Europe”). Russia supplies around 175 to 200 bcm. The basic question is: can Europe find another 175-200 bcm in alternative gas supplies and/or reduced gas use? tl;dr: It's very tough.
Image

February 26th 2022

106 Retweets558 Likes

But the planet doesn’t care about your gas prices:

Twitter avatar for @James_BGJames Murray @James_BG
Tomorrow the IPCC will publish a report setting out the genuinely terrifying scale and reach of the climate impacts already underway and coming down the line. At the same time governments across Europe will continue to scramble to develop tactics that can assist Ukraine.

February 27th 2022

85 Retweets214 Likes

That report is out with sirens blaring:

Twitter avatar for @antonioguterresAntónio Guterres @antonioguterres
I've seen many reports, but nothing like the new @IPCC_CH climate report, an atlas of human suffering & damning indictment of failed climate leadership. I know people everywhere are anxious & angry. I am, too. It's time to turn rage into #ClimateAction.
Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and VulnerabilityIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Reportipcc.ch

February 28th 2022

1,271 Retweets2,398 Likes

Ergo: my tentative conclusion:

Twitter avatar for @billmckibbenBill McKibben @billmckibben
The uncanny confluence of Putin's invasion and the IPCC report is a stark reminder: fossil fuel powers the worst crises facing our planet. If we use this moment to get off oil and gas, we have a fighting chance as a planet.

February 28th 2022

190 Retweets522 Likes

So what do you think what’s going to happen? Coal plants in Germany once again? A Green Marshall Plan for Europe? Let us know in the comments.

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Some humor in these dark times:

Twitter avatar for @christogrozevChristo Grozev @christogrozev
!!! Ukraine's Interior ministry asked residents to take down street signs in order to confuse oncoming Russian troops. The state road-signs agency went one step further. (Roughly: all directions are to "go fuck yourselves")
Image

February 26th 2022

8,051 Retweets25,861 Likes
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