2018 Newsletter 19: Intelligent Capital
Marx started writing his famous book in the early days of capitalism. According to that canonical source of truth, i.e., Wikipedia, James Watt's steam engine was invented between 1763 and 1775. Marx and Engels wrote the Communist Manifesto in 1848. In other words, somewhere between 85 and 73 years after the steam engine. Meanwhile, the first functioning electronic computer, i.e., ENIAC, was first completed in 1945, so we are 73 years past the deployment of that technology.
Why am I saying this?
When Marx and Engels wrote their pamphlet, industrial capitalism was just beginning to show its impact on England and Europe. 1848 was also the year of the social unrest across Europe but it was a long ways away from two worlds wars, several revolutions, decolonization and all the other consequences of the mechanical age. Nevertheless, they were right in pointing out that industrial capitalism was a really big deal and that it would change the world.
Similarly, we are at a relatively early stage in the development of intelligent capitalism, i.e., capitalism powered by information and machine learning. Not so coincidentally, we are also at an early stage of panic over climate change and ecological collapse more broadly. The two go together.
We may or may not agree with Marx's vision, but he was absolutely right (and he wasn't alone in saying so) in pointing out that the real impact of industrial capitalism wasn't in the new gadgets and gizmos that enter our lives but in the social relations transformed through this influx. Global capitalist society is nothing like the pre-industrial societies it has replaced.
Intelligent capital will cause an equally dramatic shift in life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, even as individual gadgets come and go. Some of the symptoms of this shift are already upon us: we know surveillance is going to be big, automation bigger and climate change is going to be huge. What else?
I have resolutely left-wing sympathies, but the honest thing to do is understand this new condition before passing judgment. My long-term goal is to shine a crystal ball on the future and in doing so, uncover the real transformative forces that are being unleashed. But that's a ways away. For now, I want to share snippets.