Divine Uncertainty Uncertainty doesn't mix well with divinity. Whether you're a Bayesian or a Frequentist, it's hard to square the all-knowing, all-powerful nature of godliness with the vagaries of chance. Bayesians are subjectivists about chance, i.e., they believe that probability comes from the strength of beliefs we have about an event. Will the coin land heads or tails? A Bayesian believes he's a fifty percent chance of being right when he guesses, so he won't accept a wager different from 1:1 if he thinks the coin is fair.
Jayary Newsletter #60
Jayary Newsletter #60
Jayary Newsletter #60
Divine Uncertainty Uncertainty doesn't mix well with divinity. Whether you're a Bayesian or a Frequentist, it's hard to square the all-knowing, all-powerful nature of godliness with the vagaries of chance. Bayesians are subjectivists about chance, i.e., they believe that probability comes from the strength of beliefs we have about an event. Will the coin land heads or tails? A Bayesian believes he's a fifty percent chance of being right when he guesses, so he won't accept a wager different from 1:1 if he thinks the coin is fair.